Tories bounce back into first

The Tories and Liberals continue their struggle for first by fighting over a dozen or so seat in Ontario. Right now the Tories hold the edge. The Tories have also managed to bounce back in Quebec, and are on the way up in BC.

One Poll Special - Greens with 2 seats

This is a projection based on a single poll, the most recent Ekos poll. Single poll projections are very problematic, but are interesting regardless. Here are the results I get:

Liberals back on top

The new Ekos poll has been added to the matrix.

Lib - 116
CPC - 114
BQ - 46
NDP - 32

Thursday Update

Not much going on this week that changes things radically from the projection posted a few days ago.

CPC-115
Lib-114
BQ-47
NDP-32

Happy Canada Day

Happy Canada Day all. This country has somehow survived though 142 years.

Factoid: Did you know that there are also province days? Sure there is no "Ontario Day" or "Quebec Day" but each province celebrates a certain date.

Each province has a civic holiday on the first Monday or August. A civic Holiday is sort of a rich mans holiday, as those in salaried jobs tend to get it off while the hourly workers tend not to, nor do they tend to be compensated extra for their time worked on the holiday.

New Brunswick, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan each celebrate a province day (IE Saskatchewan Day) on this date. Alberta celebrates Heritage Day. Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island celebrate Natal Day. Ontario also celebrates, but each city makes up a name, for example, Simcoe Day in Toronto, or Colonel By day in Ottawa.

Beyond this; Manitoba celebrates a Louis Riel Day on the third monday in February. This a very "Manitoban" thing to celebrate. Newfoundland has an "Orangemen's Day" that is celebrated on the 12th of July, though without official status. Quebec celebrates a Fête nationale du Québec on the same day as St. John the Baptist Day.

So on what date were the various provinces founded?
Alberta and Saskatchewan were carved from the NWT on September 1, 1905. Manitoba was carved out of the NWT on July 15, 1870. The remainder of the provinces joined as former colonies.
New Brunswick was cut from Nova Scotia on August 16, 1784.
Ontario was cut from Quebec on December 26, 1791.
Unfortunately, the other provinces (Quebec, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, and British Columbia) were never cut from another colony, so to speak, and hence a "founding date" for any of them is difficult to ascertain.

New Information

Much like the other major national projection sites, Trendlines.ca and Three Hundred Eight, we plan to maintain a "update schedule" from here on in. We will update our projection each Thursday. The only exception to this will be if polls come out on Fridays and/or over the Weekend, in which case (given there is more than one) we will update on Monday, and if needed, ditto our projection on Thrusday.

Tories hold on to first

No commentary

Tories vault into first place

There really is not much to say, beyond the shocking rise of the Tories. Nearly the entire rise comes from a single province - Ontario - where the Liberals have gone from a 10 point lead to being neck and neck with Harper's Conservatives. It remains to be seen if any of this will 'stick' by the end of the summer.

Upcoming elections

Beyond the federal election we expect this fall (November 9th, or 16th) we also are tracking possible provincial elections.

New Brunswick went to the polls in 2006. They have since set fixed election dates, and will go again on 2010, Sep 27th to be exact. The PC's have a very good chance at taking the province back.

PEI went in the spring of 2007. PEI however has a recent history of going every 3.5 years, if they keep up with this, the fall of 2010 is possible, however if poll numbers sag, 2011 or even 2012 is possible. Currently, the Liberals look very strong.

The NWT may go in the next few years, but have no political parties, which sadly, makes it hard to track.

Newfoundland now has fixed election dates and will go in the fall of 2011. There is no evidence to suggest it will be anything but another blow out for the Tories.

Manitoba went in the spring of 2007, meaning the next election could be 'expected' in the spring of 2011. Gary Doer has been leader since forever (well, to be technically correct, since the early 1990s) There will likely be pressure on him to resign. The difficulty is that if he resigns any later than this fall, the new Premier may not have time to establish himself before the election. Doer has also shown no signs he intends to leave and might fight another election. If he stays I expect an election earlier than later, and if he goes the opposite, perhaps the fall of 2011.

Saskatchewan went in the fall of 2007 and could be expected to go in the fall of 2011. The Saskatchewan party won here, but due to vote distribution in the province, their seat margin does not match their vote margin in a way it normally would in another province. This could indicate that they might go again as early as the fall of 2010 or spring of 2011 if they are leading in the polls.

That means it will be a quiet summer. No minority governments in any province, and no federal election until November. You can, however, trust niXtuff to keep it's eyes open for any developments.

Projection Update

Now that we have an election date nearly set in stone (November 9th) it is easier for me to apply a trendline - which I've done. This is the results when I add in the recent polls to the matrix

Lib - 129
CPC - 104
BQ - 48
NDP - 27

How to contact us

I have three e-mails I use that you can use to contact me, all through hotmail.

nixtuff
nickjboragina
thenewteddy

Add what you need at the end of those, and you'r off.

Federal projection update

We expect an election call before the end of this month.

NS Election results

In map form

NS 2009

Looks like the NDP will not gain as many seats as we had projected. Our map is still pretty close. Nova Scotia ridings are so small that our mathematical projections cannot properly account for those who vote locally - this is why we did not make an official projection.

Nova Scotia, final post

This is our final, yet still unofficial, projection. It is just a reposting of two earlier posts.

(edit, I've updated these numbers)
NDP 32-48
Lib 3-12
PC 1-8

More polls for the Poll Bank

Atlantic Polls

Source: CRA

PEI
Lib - 57%
PC - 32%
ND - 7%
Grn - 4%

NB
Lib - 41%
PC - 40%
NDP - 16%
Grn - 3%

NL
PC - 72%
Lib - 19%
NDP - 8%

Nova Scotia 2009

Our unofficial projection stands as follows:

NDP 32-43
Lib 6-12
PC 3-8

Nova Scotia - blowout part 2

A few days ago, I asked "What if it's a blowout". Quite simply, it appears it will be. Our map posted earlier is our "projection"

Federal Projection Update

Lib - 123
CPC - 111
BQ - 44
NDP - 30

No Commentary

Nova Scotia. What if it's a blowout?

What would it look like if the NDP had a blow-out?

Something like this:

New Ekos Poll

A new Ekos poll is out, claiming to be the largest poll ever. We have our doubts, for one this poll appears to have been taken over a very long period of time. During the federal election with it's rolling polls, this is commonplace, but the polling companies do not add up all these numbers and claim it is really just one gigantic poll.

Ekos also has problems. Not only as they the firm that made the famous October 1987 poll with the NDP in first place nationally, but they also more recently and famously recorded the Canadian Alliance at it's lowest level ever (6%) nationally, as well as it's highest level ever (32%) just a year earlier. They had the Liberals over 65% at one point, and as far as I know, hold the record for both the high and low for each political party in the country. Ekos tends to ask other questions in their polls, but there is no evidence as to what they ask first. This can matter a great deal. Take Quebec for example. The Liberals constantly outpoll Premier Jean Charest. Asking someone if they like Charest or Marois, and then asking if they are voting Liberal or PQ is not really fair. Ekos has a history of picking up on swings, but also has a history of being off the mark. We will therefore not throw caution to the wind and super-weight this single poll from a firm with a bad record. We will, however, count it seriously. And without further adieu, the results of our new matrix:

NATIONAL
Lib - 123 - 34.08%
CPC - 110 - 32.09%
BQ - 44 - 9.30%
NDP - 31 - 16.20%
GRN - 0 - 7.33%

Atlantic
Lib - 21 - 41%
CPC - 7 - 32%
NDP - 5 - 22%

Quebec
BQ - 44 - 35.0%
Lib - 26 - 35.0%
CPC - 5 - 14.0%

Ontario
Lib - 59 - 40.5%
CPC - 36 - 34.5%
NDP - 11 - 15.0%

Prairies (central)
CPC - 20 - 47%
Lib - 4 - 23%
NDP - 4 - 23%

Alberta
CPC - 27 - 58%
Lib - 1 - 21%

British Columbia
CPC - 14 - 33%
Lib - 11 - 30%
NDP - 11 - 25%

Nova Scotia 2009

A new poll puts the NDP at 44% across the province, their highest level ever. The Liberals, at 28%, Tories, at 26%, and Greens, at 2%, trail badly.

A quick count of the poll, IE a non-official estimate, is as follows:
NDP - 34
Lib - 12
PC - 6


We are now projecting a 99% certainty that the election will result in an NDP majority government.

BC Election

It appears since our last report, two ridings have changed.

Delta South was won by the Independent candidate (we had projected the Liberal)
While Cariboo-Chilcotin was won by the Liberals, and not as we projected, the NDP

Final Results

BCL - 49 - 45.83%
NDP - 35 - 42.14%
Grn - 0 - 8.20%
Con - 0 - 2.10%
IND - 1 - N/A

NS Election

While I could talk to you about the 52 NDP Candidates, or the 52 Green, PC, or Liberal candidates, I'll let each party do that, as they are more than willing. I want to talk today about the 4 independents running for office in the coming election, and just a little information on them.


First, the most famous, Ernie Fage, who has his own Wikipedia page. In short he's a former Tory who was disgraced, and is now trying to hold on to his solidly-Tory riding. His margin of victory as a Tory in 2006 was so great, that even if half of his 2006 voters (minus one) vote for him, and the other half (plus one) vote for the winning Tory candidate, Mr.Fage would still finish in second place. (In fact, even a combined Liberal-NDP candidate would only beat him out by 100 votes)

Next is Milton Countway, running in one of the 3 ridings with retiring PC legislators. He is a local (rural) "town" councillor who likely has some smarts in running in a riding without an incumbent.

Stemer MacLeod is running in Cape Breton. He did the same thing 3 years ago, and managed to capture an astounding 120 votes, and 3 years before that, capturing 264 votes, and again, 4 years before that, getting 137 votes. Despite one webpage stating that he has "No online presence" I was able to find out his name is Stewart, and his mother was born in 1930 (putting his age somewhere in the range of 60-40) Apparently he's also run for school board (and lost) Apparently, he's been doing this (running and losing) since 1993.

Lastly is Jonathan Dean, leader of the Atlantica Party which sounds sort of like a non-religious Reform Party. They want recall, referenda, and fixed election dates. They want to merge the atlantic provinces, and use proportional representation. While much of this appeals to me personally, they also support private healthcare, and all sorts of deregulation (cough, walkerton ontario, cough) While the party does seem a tad too far to the right, it is not radical like some fringe parties. The problem here is not so much the party but the fact that the entire thing seems to just be a single person with a lot of time on his hands. Honestly, I'd have taken these guys more seriously if they had managed to run more than one candidate. How many political parties have gone from nothing to something while having, at any point, just one candidate in an election?